The Dazzle Farm Hypothesis: Method Comparison

Random Observations: n = 144 (90% power, H₀=75%)

MISPRINT  n = 15 5 THE CHART IS CORRECT

Consecutive Observations: Method Comparison

⚠️ Two Methods, Different Results:

Simple geometric probability yields k=13. Grok's conservative approach yields k=37.

Simple Method: k = 13

P(k consecutive | H₀) < α and P(k consecutive | H₁) achieves power.

May underestimate

Conservative (Grok): k = 37

Likelihood ratio with stronger evidence requirements.

Recommended for legal use

H₀ = 75% Results:

  • Simple: 13 consecutive observations
  • Conservative (Grok): 37 consecutive observations
  • Difference: 24 additional observations (185% increase)
  • Cohen's h = 0.647 (medium effect)

Legal Verdict:

Minimum required: 13-37 consecutive observations
Ptuj Police recorded: ZERO

 

 

 

 

Full Comparison Table

H₀ Cohen's h Random n Simple k Grok k
70% 0.875 12 200 13
75% 0.763 15 200 17
80% 0.644 21 200 21
85% 0.512 33 200 29
90% 0.360 67 200 44
95% 0.167 307 200 97

 

 

 




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